Energy Disruption and Workforce Planning in the GCC

The surge in oil prices above $100, triggered by supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, is reshaping GCC labour markets into a dual economy. While oil-linked sectors expand, service industries face contraction, rising costs, and workforce instability. Inflation, nationalization mandates, and expatriate attrition are compounding pressures, exposing structural gaps in workforce planning. Organizations must rapidly adapt budgets, hiring strategies, and retention models to navigate a volatile 90-day window of economic and labour market disruption.

Key insights from this report highlight:

• Rising oil prices are increasing operational costs faster than revenue growth for non-oil sectors, creating margin pressure across workforce-heavy industries.

• The GCC labour market is splitting into growth sectors such as healthcare and cybersecurity and declining sectors such as tourism and retail.

• Nationalization mandates including Emiratisation and Saudization remain fixed, increasing compliance costs during economic disruption.

• Expatriate workforce attrition and rising wage expectations are driving higher replacement costs and talent shortages across critical roles.

• Mid-market workforce pipelines are weakening, creating long-term operational risks for sectors dependent on skilled and semi-skilled labour.

Download the full report to explore the complete workforce strategy framework for navigating GCC labour market disruption.